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POLLWATCH POLLWATCH: CI Senior Fellow Dr. Patrick O’Heffernan will use recent surveys to take a peroidic look at “conventional wisdom” generated by the Right’s echo chamber. Send your comments, corrections, and suggestions for POLLWATCH topics to Patrick@commonwealinstitute.org POLLWATCH - August 2, 2005 Bush losing his support for the fight against terror If President Bush tries to capitalize on the recent London bombings, polls indicate he will not get traction, at least among non-Republicans and young people. According to a recent Gallup poll, the number of Americans who think the terrorists are winning “the war on terror” has been steadily rising since 2003 and hit an all time high last month of 20 %. At the same time the number of Americans who felt that neither side was winning jumped from 35% last January to 41% last month. And the number of Americans who see the US and its allies as winning has fallen steadily from a majority of 51% last January to a low of 36% last month. Predictably, Republicans are more optimistic on terrorism than others: the same poll revealed that 60% of Republicans believe the US is winning against the terrorists, as opposed to 29% of independents and 9% of Democrats. But, while the President can see these results as confirming that, at least, his base is strong, the Harvard Institute of Politics Poll of College Students [note - PDF file] taken during the same period (June, 2005) paints a more pessimistic picture for the President’s future. It shows that an overwhelming 76% of college students believe that a major, 9/11 scale terrorist attack will occur in the US in the next ten years despite current policies, and 49% believe it will happen in the next 5 years. A small percentage of students, 10%, feel that the attack will use weapons of mass destruction. The same poll showed that today’s students for the first time believe that the war in Iraq (53%) was not worth it, that it will take 10 years for democracy to take root in Iraq (67%), and that the UN, not the US, should be solving the world’s crises (74%). The US should become the largest contributor of financial aid to solve global crises (64%) but should reserve its troop deployments for use in preventing genocide (61%). These are strong indications that the next wave of voters, both Democratic and Republican (the survey covered both, although it was somewhat heavier on Democrats and independents), do not and will not support a continuation of the Bush neocon foreign policies, especially the war in Iraq and the “war on terror”. The Gallup Poll surveyed 1002 adults 18 and older; the Harvard poll survey, 1206 students 18 -24 (with a handful over 24), so there was some overlap, but it was likely not significant, given that the bulk of Gallup data would have been drawn from the 35 -49 demographic for statistical balance. This means that the President can only look to his most ardent middle-aged and boomer supporters to continue to support his policies like the Patriot Act renewal. Worse for him, it also means that as younger generations vote in increasing numbers, his support will further narrow. Given that young people increased their voting turnout 11% - 3 times that of the general population - in the last election and, according to the Harvard poll, 67% of students reported that the 2004 election galvanized them to get even more involved in upcoming elections, the President can expect to see further erosion in support for his anti-terror policies, including the war in Iraq. What should progressives do? Two things. First, keep up the drumbeat of truth about the real failure of the war in Iraq and the growing failure of the invasion of Iraq to stamp out the Taliban, the failure to find Osama Ben Laden, and the waste of time and money of many Homeland Security programs. Second, encourage the youth vote and organizations working to engage young people in progressive politics, especially in the 2006 and 2008 elections where their numbers could make the difference in retaking the Senate, giving Democrats a platform launch investigations of the Administration’s mishandling of the terrorism issue. POLLWATCH - June 20, 2005 Listen to teenagers: the polls say they are our future Today’s reality for U.S. teens includes the illegal invasion of Iraq, a nebulous but much-hyped war against terrorism, and an uncertain economy addicted to oil, but many teens see a much brighter world of "tomorrow." In a recent Gallup Youth Survey, about 7 in 10 teens (69%) say they are more optimistic than pessimistic about the world their children will live in. These kids, and their older brothers and sisters, poll very progressive…this demographic self-identifies as “liberal” by 12% according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement survey of youth attitudes. They are more diverse, interested in other countries, and more flexible than their parent’s generation on issues like gays in the military, women in combat, and other hot button issues in today’s political environment. Only on abortion questions are teens as conservative as adults. They should be optimistic: most teens perceive they have plenty of freedom. A recent Gallup Youth Survey asked teenagers, aged 13 to 17, what they think about the amount of freedom that today's teens have. A majority (55%) say teens, generally speaking, have "the right amount" of freedom…a response that likely surprises their parents. Why should adults care? Why should hard-working progressives pay attention to 13 year olds, or even 15-17 year olds who will eligible to vote in 2008? Because this demographic group…and the one just ahead of it (18-24)…are the keys to taking back America and keeping it. The 18 -24 year old demographic increased its voter turnout [note - this is a PDF file] more than any other in the nation…and they were the only demographic to vote a majority for Kerry, by 10%. Plus they will soon be the largest national voting bloc – according to the US Census, the 15 – 29 year old demographic will be the largest single pool of eligible voters in the nation. Contrary to what the media would have you believe, this demographic votes. They increased their turnout [note - this is a PDF file] in 2004 more than any other demographic group, up 11% compared the national average of 4%. They voted so heavily for Kerry that if only this demographic had voted, Kerry would have been the runaway winner. What this means for Democrats and progressives is they need to cultivate, recruit, and motivate this generation. The Republicans are on top of this already: there are dozens of internships for conservative youth, training 18 and 19-year olds to be the conservative leaders of tomorrow. Democrats need to do the same; these kids are our key to taking our country back …and keeping it. POLLWATCH - May 30, 2005 Corrupt corporate executives – a wedge issue for Democrats? Gallup's 2005 Survey on Values and Beliefs, which asks Americans to rate 16 issues as "acceptable or unacceptable morally", highlighted the so-called value differences Republicans have used effectively to bleed working class votes from Democratic numbers. But another poll, the Barna Group’s America Speaks survey, found that Democrats and Republicans strongly agree on one thing, the lack of morality in large corporations. That agreement may give Democrats a wedge issue to counterattack Republicans on “values” and take back working class voters in Red states. As the tables below show Democrats and Republicans are far apart on issues involving, sex, marriage and environment, but are unified in their distrust pf corporate executives. Although many adults polled were fuzzy about the facts of corporate crime, when asked to describe their confidence level in seven types of influencers and leaders, executives of large corporations were at the rock bottom among both Democrats and Republicans. While political party affiliation was somewhat related to confidence levels, opinion of corporations and their executives was so abysmal across the board that any difference between Democrats and Republicans was insignificant.
Table 1: Morally acceptable issues: Democrats v. Republicans: Gallup Poll
Table 2: Percentage of respondents professing confidence in leaders: Barna Group Survey
The Barna research also showed that a majority of all adults (55%) believed that greed or immorality motivated the illegal actions of executives of large corporations. While the Barna data did not break out these attitudes by party, the population groups most likely to cite moral ineptitude or greed were the segments 55-plus, men, whites, Protestants and upscale individuals – generally Republican groupings. And poll respondents selected as the least effective strategies for correcting corporate greed to be religious training in schools (41%) and providing business executives with better training in morals and ethics (40%) - leaving by default prosecution and punishment of the offending moguls. This may be an opening for Democrats. Following the Lakoff advice that one should campaign for what people already believe, a Democratic drive to crack down hard – with serious jail time – on dishonest corporate executives could net them two prizes: a wedge between the working class Republicans and that party’s large corporate backers, and an issue that can help convince even religious Republicans that the Democrats make sense and share at least one very important moral value – bringing morality back to industry. This strategy would also appeal to the anti-globalization base of progressives and give Democrats an opportunity to show their base they have balls, a piece of political physiology seen by grassroots progressives as being in short supply among Democratic officials. Plus, it would show conservatives that Democrats are not afraid to use “strict father” type punishment when it is needed. This strategy would require testing, as Republican respondents listed teaching children morals and providing non-sectarian religious training in schools as long term solutions to corporate greed. But Democrats certainly don’t oppose parents teaching their children morals – especially the morality of running companies ethically -- and would likely accept survey-of-religion type courses that demonstrated that all religious beliefs require corporate honesty. And of course, if Democrats want to gain support by emphasizing corporate morality, they should insure that the moral behavior of the business execs who donate to them behave morally. POLLWATCH - May 24, 2005 This POLLWATCH is by Dr. Katherine Forrest, Director of Operations and co-founder of the Commonweal Institute. Dr. Forrest can be reached at kforrest@commonwealinstitute.org. The most recent Pew Research Center Political Typology survey revealed significant cleavages within both the Right and the Left, as well as expected differences between those two major divisions of the American electorate. The 2005 Political Typology sorts voters into nine homogeneous groups based on values, political beliefs, and party affiliation. The current study is based on two public opinion surveys - a nationwide poll of 2,000 interviews conducted Dec. 1-16, 2004, and a subsequent re-interview of 1,090 respondents conducted March 17-27 of this year. Overall, the most dramatic contrast between Right and Left is on matters dealing with force, pre-emptive strikes, and the Patriot Act. Within the Right block, there are differences between the highest income subgroup and those who are less well off, in attitudes about economic and domestic issues, and the role of government in helping people. Within the Left block, the most notable differences have to do with social and personal values. While the majority of the public continues to get most of its news from television, there are interesting differences within the political divisions. The Right favors FOX News and among the Right-leaning groups, the subgroup with the highest income is the most dependent on FOX. Young, well-educated people, regardless of political orientation, favor the Internet over any individual TV news source. These differences and many others revealed by the survey may offer opportunities to break apart the existing political divisions. This is particularly important for progressives—with less media resources and hardly any political infrastructure at this point, we need to be smarter and more focused in our change efforts, and attentive to ways in which we can pull together the fledgling progressive movement. Consider this poll report a must-read if you’re interested in changing America’s political landscape. As part of the release of the 2005 Political Typology, the Pew Research Center has created an interactive website where users can find out where they fit in the Political Typology, and to see how the various typology groups feel about major issues of the day. The interactive website is at Pew. POLLWATCH - February 25, 2005 Republicans value loyalty to George Bush over honor for George Washington In poll by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas for Washington College that pitted George W. Bush against George Washington, nearly two out of three Republicans say they would support President Bush even if his political opponent were the father of our country. An astonishing 62 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Bush and only 28 percent said they would back General Washington. While the Washington College poll gave General George a 19-point lead overall over King George W due to strong Democratic and Independent support for our nation’s founder, General George did not fare well in a separate President’s Day Gallup poll that tested General George’s popularity against that of a number recent presidents. That survey found that only 5 percent of Americans believe Washington was the greatest president, putting him a bare two percentage points ahead of Jimmy Carter and tied with George Bush.. The leaders were Reagan (20 percent), Clinton (15 percent) and Lincoln (14 percent). POLLWATCH - January 13, 2005 Are Conservatives in step with the American public? Not much, according to the latest Gallup polls. Pollwatch examined the new 2005 Gallup (requires subscription) polls and tested conservative priorities against several key indicators: gay rights and acceptance of gays in American society, the right to choose, the influence of business in society and in the Bush Administration, and the place and role of religion in America. In all but one of these – the role of religion in solving America’s problems, Conservatives were out of step with the American people and the trends were against them. No wonder they are such sore winners. Gays in society (Jan 3-5, 2005) Conservatives - the Religious Right in particular - object to the visibility of gays in American society and vehemently condemn what they strategically mislabel “the gay lifestyle”. However, Americans by 54% - 42% accept gays in society, by 52% to 48% think gay sex should be legal, and by a huge 89% to 8% feel that gays should have the same rights as straights. The trends in each of these indicators has been toward a more gay-friendly position over the past 25 years. Big business. (Jan 3-5, 2005) Conservatives promote a stronger role for big business in both society and in the Administration and vigorously oppose regulations. A top conservative priority in the Bush second term is to rollback or kill existing regulations protecting consumers, stockholders, and the environment. However, Americans by a huge 60% to 8% feel big business has too much influence in society, and by 65% to 35% feel big business has too much influence on the Bush Administration. A substantial majority – 58% to 37% -- feel current regulation of business should be maintained or strengthened. These attitudes have remained relatively constant since 1993, when Gallup began asking this question. The Right to Choose (Jan. 3-5, 2005) Conservatives, and especially the Religious Right, are fighting hard to ban abortion at the Federal level, and wage a constant war at the state level to restrict its availability. Americans are divided on abortion, but disagree with the conservatives who want to ban it; 60% want current abortion laws either unchanged or liberalized, while 38% would like to see additional restrictions on abortion. When asked, 52% of Americans identify themselves as pro-choice and 41% as pro-life. Only 19% support a ban on abortion. Given that polls show that between 38% and 41% of Americans self-identify as evangelical Christians, the 19% figure means that a majority of evangelicals do not support the religious right’s drive to ban all abortions. Religion in American society and politics (survey conducted throughout 2004; published Jan. 2005) Conservatives argue for a greater role for religion in society and see nothing wrong with using religion to direct government policy. Here Americans are closer to them than not, but are trending slowly away. The 2004 Gallup Religious Index (RI, a measure of religiosity in America tracked by Gallup for 60 years) found that 59% of Americans believe that religion can solve many or all of America’s problems, a vote of confidence in “faith-based solutions”. However, this number is trending downward, having fallen by 3% since 2001. On the question of religion in American life, the RI rose slightly from its historical low of 641 out of 1000 in 2002 to 648, but has stalled there, (648 is still high – most European countries would rank in the 300’s- 400’s). However, the RI has been falling steadily in America from a high of 746 in 1956. The Barna Group annual survey of religion in America agrees and indicates that the percentage of Americans who are Christian has also fallen.
POLLWATCH - JANUARY 6, 2005 Opinion now favorable on investing Social Security funds, but Bush approval rating falls. Last week POLLWATCH reported on the first post-election WSJ poll which found that by a margin of 50% to 38% the public believes it's "a bad idea" to let workers invest Social Security taxes in the stock market. However, a Dec. 16, 2004 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll found that 60% say "people should have the choice to invest privately up to 5% of their Social Security contributions," presumably after hearing a month’s worth of conservative propaganda that Social Security is going broke and the only way to fix it is to enrich Wall Street. Those numbers were echoed by a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll reported on by Gallup that finds 53% support investing some Social Security money in the stock market. This dropped to 46% when respondents were told that borrowing may be needed. However, according to the same Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, only 48 percent of Americans approve of Bush’s job performance, down 1 percent from last week’s POLLWATCH, and down 5 percentage points from mid-November. The poll also reported that 45 percent of Americans now disapprove of the job Bush is doing, up 5 points from November. No election bounce for George! POLLWATCH - December 29, 2004 Americans tell Bush to leave Social Security alone, you are doing a bad job at home and abroad
The first Wall Street Journal Poll since the election finds that public opinion is very skeptical about Bush's proposed changes in the 69-year-old Social Security program which provides the retirement and disability income safety net for more than 47 million Americans. The public by 50% to 38% believes it's "a bad idea" to let workers invest Social Security taxes in the stock market. A majority of those polled - 51% - believed Bush did NOT receive a mandate to change Social Security. The same poll found that Bush's approval rating is still below 50% (49% overall), and that majorities - 51% - disapprove of his handling of both the domestic economy and of foreign policy.
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