Ok, hands up, who is already familiar with the J Curve?
The J Curve is a refreshingly handy, simple, and (I would maintain) progressive method of understanding how countries fit into the global puzzle. Imagine a graph with political and economic stability on the vertical axis and political and economic openness on the horizontal axis.
For those visual learners, view the graph and continue reading below.
The theory states that all countries fall more or less along this curve somewhere. So while it is possible to create stability in a closed economy such as North Korea, the stability is limited. Politically and economically open countries such as the UK would experience a much higher obtainable measure of stability. North Korea on the small left end of the J and the UK on the larger right end, make sense?
The next step to take into account is that countries can travel along this curve. If we believe in the logic of the J Curve, we can then make easy thumbnail prescriptions as to what actions would promote the right* kind of stability in other countries.
I’ll apply the J Curve next time. In the meantime take a look at Ian Bremmer’s book on Amazon, or visit the book’s website.
* - ethically right and graphically right, that is to say
Comments (1)
As you understand it, Jon, does the J-curve analysis imply that, as a result of the Bush administration being dramatically less open than previous administrations, the US is becoming less stable? Is this the message of the November 7 election? And what are the parameters covered by the term "stable"?
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December 6, 2006 11:07 AM
Posted on December 6, 2006 11:07